On July 14th, the International Criminal Court bravely charged Sudanese President Omar Bashir with crimes against humanity for his role as the leader of the ongoing Genocide in Darfur.
These charges are significant against a regime with a long track record of violence against non-Arab groups in Sudan, but they are not the first. Last year the ICC issued warrants for Bashir's top officials; Humanitarian Affairs Minister, Ahmad Harun, and Janjaweed Militia leader Ali Kushayb. The Sudanese government has not cooperated in handing them over. It is generally accepted that Bashir will not go quietly.
Why then are we to believe the ICC's action will make any difference to a people who have been begging for justice for more than 5 years?
I suspect one reason is that the US has put little diplomatic effort into pressuring Sudan's biggest diplomatic protector, China, into using it's influence.
China purchases the majority of the regions oil and could have influenced Bashir's reluctance to participate in a meaningful peace agreement long ago. Considering Mondays charges, China may now want to distance itself from a President facing arrest for Genocide on the eve of their hosting the International Olympics. China might also reconsider supplying arms to a government the ICC has formally charged with Crimes Against Humanity. Failing to with hold arms shipments could result in their being charged with violating the Genocide Convention.
This week the Arab League held an emergency meeting to discuss the indictment of Bashir.
The league recommended that Sudan turn over Harun and Kashayb as a bargaining chip to thwart or delay the ICC's taking additional action against Bashir. Sudanese presidential advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail said Sudan would not cooperate with the ICC because they do not recognise them, according to the state-run Egyptian news agency.
A leading Saudi columnist for the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper said on Monday, "We must remember that the Arab League did not care about the extermination of 300,000 Darfuris. It even refused to stand a moment of silence to the killings, displacements and burning."
It would appear to some that Bashir is looking for reinforcement instead of re-assessing the path to the peace.
It will take the ICC many months to issue an actual arrest warrant for Bashir. Meanwhile, the Sudanese government will predictably use it's outrage to explain renewed violence against African Union and UN peacekeepers. It has already posed the threat of renewed violence against aid workers in press statements. There is no doubt this may scare the ICC into backing down or delaying further actions until there are certain assurances. But promises made by Khartoum are generally empty ones.
Peace it would appear, will now hang in the scales of Justice. Or will it?
Luis Moreno-Ocampo has delivered the evidence. Now he must have the support of the Judges and he must also have the support of the UN Security Council.
Perhaps the first best step now would be the immediate and long overdue deployment of the additional AU and UN Forces with a mandate to protect? Most experts agree that protection provides a baseline front against additional aggression. Reducing the regimes ability to kill with impunity effectively reduces the regimes grip on their mission. Now, while the government of Sudan is mired in debate over the ICC's charges, and reeling from the recent penetration of rebel forces in Khartoum, would be the time.
It is illogical for the UN to wait for Khartoum to give the thumbs up sign and allow these forces in.
The ICC's brave stand means nothing if the very bodies required to support it do nothing.
Protection, peace, and prosecution has always been the accepted order and approach at resolving this conflict.
In his most recent live press conference, President Bush said he is waiting for the UN.
Conspicuous in its absence is any comment from China.
There are current reports that Sudan is showing signs of increased cooperation with aid shipments and visas for aid workers; actions that most certainly would not have come with out the ICC charges.
For now, we can only wait, watch, and hope that the threat of prosecution brings peace and protection to the people of Darfur.
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